The prolonged euro-revolution in Ukraine can take a sudden turn after the Olympics in Sochi. The West needs to act fast before the President of Ukraine and his allies make the next move and crash the protesters. The outcome of this move will be unpredictable. The leaked “Fu$k the EU” video reveled how the West is not united on helping Ukrainian protesters against the regime. The high profile US official Victoria Nuland who make this comment to the US Ambassador to Ukraine in a private telephone conversation was leaked by the Russian authorities.
Moreover, there is a less famous photograph of a protester in Ukraine holding a sign “Germany, your porn is harder than sanctions” support the same argument. So far, the US and Canada are the only countries who listen to the protesters’ needs to impose targeted sanctions against Ukraine’s officials implicated in ordering violent and brutal assaults in protesters in December and January. The EU under the heavy German influence has only been issuing verbal statements without taking any concrete actions. Russia has scored another goal again the EU in Ukraine since the Euromaidan began. The opposition leaders look weak and under pressure from both the President and the protesters who may see them as traitors if they accept a wrong deal. So far, no one found what the right deal is going to look like.
While the eyes of the world are on the Olympics in Sochi time is running out for protesters. Despite a couple of major setbacks for Ukraine’s president he’s very much in control of the situation. While his loyal Prime Minister resigned, his infamous Minister of Public Safety who is blamed for most of the police violence is in the same seat. A friend of President’s son and former Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine is the acting Prime Minister now. Also, the President has unlimited financial resources, the army/police and Russia backing him up. Russia remains a dark horse because they may want to install a better ally in Ukraine to keep the EU and NATO out if they see the current leader is loosing the battle. The West has finally started discussing financial package with no strings attached to counter Russian $15B dollar loan offer signed with President of Ukraine in December. The Western leaders, especially the EU need to negotiate with the President, the three opposition leaders and whoever protesters would trust to find a solution to this crisis. So far, protesters have shown little faith in the official opposition.
The West needs to ensure the key oligarchs start feeling political and economic pressure if they refuse to work behind the scenes to find a compromise. They need to pick a new horse instead of beating the old one down, unless they believe in the old Soviet proverb that you don’t change horses in the midstream. Until then, the President has the upper-hand while thousands of protesters putting their lives at risk daily for better future of their families, friends and the country.